Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Carrot: Yes Please, Stick: No thank you!



Mehdi Jedinia


Last November, Barack Obama was elected the nation's 44th president, breaking the ultimate racial barrier to become the first African-American to claim the country's highest office.

Obama’s presidency at first seemed to change many attitudes in Tehran, whose leaders were pinning their hopes on him, who has called for negotiations with Iran without preconditions after three decades of hostility between two nations. Days after election, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad sent a personal letter of congratulations to U.S. President-elect Barack Obama-- A first for an Iranian president since the revolution that toppled the US backed monarchy three decades ago.

Opening a window toward US was a very expected and a rational reaction by Iranian leaders as escalating international pressure over Iran's nuclear program are giving Tehran a very hard time.

Mr. Obama's willingness to talk to Tehran without preconditions was a trench hole for many moderate Iranian statesmen to get into table without losing face.

But Obama’s recent tough statements regarding Iran’s behavior recalling the old diplomacy of ‘carrot and stick’ in order to bring Iranians into term, disgusted many of his believers in Tehran. The tough statement pushed them in a corner scared them talking about Obama and put off the chance of an early opening on the long blank wall of distrust between two countries.

Influential former Iranian president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani desperately pushed to accuse US president-elect Barack Obama of mimicking his predecessor's tough stance toward Iran. Iranian moderate Majlis speaker and a tough rival of Ahmadinejad who previously supported Obama presidency saying at a press conference in Bahrain: "We are leaning more in favor of Barack Obama because he is more flexible and rational,” reacted to the recent expression citing: "It is naive to think that with the transition of power from George W. Bush to Barack Obama the situation will change."

The Democratic presidential-elect has previously promised a hard line against Iran going nuclear, which he has called a "game changer" in the Middle East and no one guaranteed that he might not increase pressure over Iran but his statement of “carrot and stick” however very common in English, interpreted as an insult calling Iranian people as donkeys or mules to be treated by stick.

In spite of years of sanctions and isolations, Iranian people still have a strong sense of pride and unwilling to let anyone to bring them down. Several US administrations have tried, and failed, to bring Iranians into term by threatening or exploiting their vulnerabilities. Neither economic distress nor additional threats are likely to work.

The history of attempts to improve relations between the two countries is riddled with missed opportunities.

It is not late to change the course. Many Iranians may still welcome Obama. The hardliners’ rhetoric against him and his policies are still not as damned as it might be in the coming months. He still has the chance to talk and bridge directly to Iranians.

It is good to mention that despite years of hostility between the two nations there are many Iranians who sympathize with African-American minority and see them as oppressed. The sympathy is still very strong as it was during the 1979-81 hostage crises which led the hostage takers declared their solidarity with other "oppressed minorities" and released 13 women and blacks. Obama has this Ace card in his pocket.

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